Item: Variations in Individual Danger Level Estimates Within the Same Forecast Region
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Title: Variations in Individual Danger Level Estimates Within the Same Forecast Region
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA
Authors:
- Frank Techel [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland ] [ University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich, Switzerland ]
- Lukas Dürr [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland ]
- Jürg Schweizer [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland ]
Date: 2016-10-02
Abstract: Forecasters in many public avalanche forecast operations rely on field observations and danger (or stability) assessments by experienced and well-trained observers. However, available field observations are often sparse, represent local conditions and may even be contradictory. We addressed these issues by comparing the local danger level estimates between different observers within the same forecast region (approx. 225 km2). 1120 local danger assessment pairs within the same region were compared. The agreement between the danger estimates of different observers in the same forecast region was 79%. Differences were likely due to local variations in avalanche conditions, but also observer-specific biases existed. Despite challenges in data interpretation due to locally variable avalanche conditions, poor spatial coverage and observer-specific characteristics, danger assessments based on field observations are key information for avalanche forecasting. However, such danger level estimates should always be considered in combination with other information related to the avalanche situation.
Language of Article: English
Presenters:
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, avalanche danger level, observer-specific bias
Page Number(s): 466-471
Subjects: avalanche forecasting avalanche danger levels observer-specific bias
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Digital Abstract Not Available
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