Item: Adaptation of Current Modeled Snow Covers and Avalanche Hazards to Future Climate According Several RCM Scenarii: Application to French Alps
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Title: Adaptation of Current Modeled Snow Covers and Avalanche Hazards to Future Climate According Several RCM Scenarii: Application to French Alps
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Grenoble – Chamonix Mont-Blanc - October 07-11, 2013
Authors:
- G. Giraud [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Grenoble/France ]
- Y. Durand [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Grenoble/France ]
- M. Rousselot [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Grenoble/France ]
- L. Mérindol [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Grenoble/France ]
- I. Dombrowski-Etchevers [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Grenoble/France ]
- M. Déqué [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Toulouse/France ]
- H. Castebrunet [ Météo - France/CNRS, CNRM - GAME UMR – 3589/Grenoble/France ] [ IRSTEA-ETNA/Grenoble /France ]
- et N.Eckert [ IRSTEA-ETNA/Grenoble /France ]
Date: 2013-10-07
Abstract: This paper presents parts of the results of the SCAMPEI ANR project. In this project, snowpack scenarios are modelled across the French Alps using dynamically downscaled variables from the French ALADIN Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the control period (1961–1990) and three emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B and A2) for the mid- and late 21st century (2021–2050 and 2071–2100). All the variables are statistically adapted to the different elevations, aspects and slopes of the Alpine massifs using downscaling procedures and Safran results. The resulting temporal series of Safran meteorological parameters are then used to run the physical snow model CROCUS and simulate snowpack evolution over the 23 massifs studied in the alpine area with a vertical step of 300m and several aspects and slopes. The seasonal and regional characteristics of the simulated climate and snow cover changes are explored, as is the influence of the scenarios on these changes. Concerning snow cover, results suggest that the snow water equivalent (SWE) of the snowpack will decrease dramatically in the different GHG scenarios, especially in the Southern and Extreme Southern parts of the Alps and at the end of the century. Regarding avalanche hazard, estimated through a daily index of Mepra avalanche risks for each massif, first results from work in progress suggest that it will decreases in mid century and at the end of the century , the North of the Alps and the highest massifs being less affected. This study needs to be completed using simulations from other RCMs, which will precise the evaluation of the uncertainties of this study.
Language of Article: English and French
Presenters: Unknown
Keywords: climate change, modelling, snowpack, avalanche risk
Page Number(s): 1194-1200
Subjects: avalanche risk snowpack modeling avalanche hazard
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Digital Abstract Not Available
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