Item: Statistical modelling of snow cover stability in mountain slopes
Title: Statistical modelling of snow cover stability in mountain slopes
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 1994 International Snow Science Workshop, Snowbird, Utah, USA
Authors: Pavel A. Chemouss, Antiavalanche service of production association"Apatit", 50th anniversary of October st., 33"a", Kirovsk, Murmansk region, 184230, Russia, Fax +4778914010-124, telex 126161 choIT su, email email@example.com
Abstract: New class of snow cover stability models are suggested. The base of such models are determined models of snow cover mechanical equilibrium and parameters of the models are stochastic functions. As an example of this class consider the model that is used for evaluation snowstorm snow stability. As a determined model was chosen simplified Boginsky's model  in which comparison tensile stress with tensile strength is used for evaluation snow cover stability. For practical using the model was simplified by Boginsky  additionally and instead of tensile stress was used snow mass of instability zone and instead of tensile strength - value of critical mass. The algorithm of the modelling is described briefly below. The profile of the slope is divided on segments with equal length in projection on horizontal plane. For each segment inclination uk and length lk are calculated. For each segment snow thickness hk, snow density Pk and shear strength ck are set. For each segment critical snow thickness is calculated with approximate formula (1). hk* = ck/Pkg (sinuk - fcosuk) (1) For each segment snow thickness hk is compared with critical one hk*. Zones in profile where snow thickness more then critical one are selected. Snow masses in selected zones are calculated. Calculated snow masses M are compared with critical one M* for each zone. It is considered, that snow is in unstable conditions in zones where snow masses more then critical one. In accordance with  a friction coefficient f and a critical mass M* are effective constants which are determined by inverse calculation with data on avalanche releases.
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Keywords: algorithm, snow model, stability, snow cover, statistics
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