Item: Observations from a statistical model for maximum avalanche run-out distances in southwest montana
Title: Observations from a statistical model for maximum avalanche run-out distances in southwest montana
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 1992 International Snow Science Workshop, Breckenridge, Colorado, USA
Authors: L.R. McKittrick and RL. Brown, Civil Engineering Dept., Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717
Abstract: An extreme value (Gumbel) distribution was evaluated as a model of maximum avalanche run-out distances in Southwest Montana. The model is defined in terms of dimensionless ratios that are defined relative to an arbitrarily defined reference point. The development and analysis of the statistical model was based on data from surveys of twenty-four avalanche paths. The technique bears promise as a user friendly tool; however, the model is quite sensitive to measurement uncertainty. The significance of this sensitivity depends on the definition of the reference point. Therefore, the reference point for this model was chosen to optimize the models sensitivity to field measurements. Comparison of the model developed here with models developed for other mountain ranges indicates that models developed for one mountain range cannot be used to accurately estimate maximum avalanche run-out distances in other ranges until natural sources of variation are better understood.
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Keywords: model, runout, avalanche path, slope
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