International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Probabilistic Analysis of Recent Snow Avalanche Activity and Climate in the French Alps

• • Title: Probabilistic Analysis of Recent Snow Avalanche Activity and Climate in the French Alps

    Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2004 International Snow Science Workshop, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

    Authors:

    • Vincent Jomelli  [ CNRS Laboratory of Geography 1 place A. Briand 92195 Meudon France ]
    • Cécile Delval  [ Université Paris 1, France ]
    • Delphine Grancher  [ CNRS Laboratory of Geography 1 place A. Briand 92195 Meudon France ]
    • Sebastien Escande  [ CEMAGREF Division ETNA 1 rue de la Papeterie 38402 St Martin d’Hères ]
    • Daniel Brunstein  [ CNRS Laboratory of Geography 1 place A. Briand 92195 Meudon France ]
    • Bernard Hetu  [ CEN Université Laval, Québec, Canada, G1K 7P4 ]
    • Louise Filion  [ CEN Université Laval, Québec, Canada, G1K 7P4 ]
    • Pierre Pech  [ Université Paris 1, France ]

    Date: 2004

    Abstract: The characterization of statistical relationships between snow avalanche occurrence and climate can be useful for avalanche prediction. We investigated the relationship between avalanche occurrences between 1978 and 2003 and meteorological parameters for 576 avalanche events from 12 avalanche tracks in the Valloire valley in the French Alps. Probabilities of avalanche occurrence based on logistic regression analyses were calculated at a daily and yearly time scale, by differentiating high- and low-frequency avalanche tracks. For high-frequency avalanche tracks, the daily probability of avalanche depends on the precipitation (water equivalent, i.e. WE) the day before a given avalanche event, along with the mean air temperature the day of the event. For low-frequency avalanche tracks, on the other hand, it depends on precipitation (WE) the day preceding a given event. We also tested the relationship between various meteorological parameters and the type of avalanche. The occurrence of dry snow avalanches is related to total precipitation (WE) on the day of and the day before a given event, whereas that of wet snow avalanches depends on precipitation (WE) the day of a given event, and maximum air temperature during the event. Our results show that for high-frequency avalanche tracks, annual probabilities of high avalanche activity depend on the occurrences of successive days (≥3 days) with high rainfall in winter and above-average air temperature (mean + 1 SD). For low-frequency avalanche tracks, probabilities of high avalanche activity depend on the occurrences of successive days (≥3 days) with high rainfall in winter.

    Language of Article: English

    Presenters: Unknown

    Keywords: snow avalanche, climate, statistic modelling, occurrence probability, french alps

    Page Number(s): 261-269

    Subjects: snow avalanche snow climate avalanche activity

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