International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Approach to Spatial Avalanche Forecasting Using a Non-Hydrostatic Model and a Snow Cover Model

• • Title: Approach to Spatial Avalanche Forecasting Using a Non-Hydrostatic Model and a Snow Cover Model

    Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2004 International Snow Science Workshop, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

    Authors:

    • Satoru Yamaguchi  [ Nagaoka Institute of Snow and Ice Studies, NIED, Nagaoka, Niigata, Japan ]
    • Atsushi Sato  [ Nagaoka Institute of Snow and Ice Studies, NIED, Nagaoka, Niigata, Japan ]
    • Katsushi Iwamoto  [ Nagaoka Institute of Snow and Ice Studies, NIED, Nagaoka, Niigata, Japan ]
    • Sento Nakai   [ Nagaoka Institute of Snow and Ice Studies, NIED, Nagaoka, Niigata, Japan ]
    • Michael Lehning  [ Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos Dorf, Switzerland ]

    Date: 2004

    Abstract: To estimate the spatial variation in snowpack characteristics, two numerical models, a regional meteorological model (NHM) and a snow cover model (SNOWPACK), were connected on the Sea of Japan side, one of the heaviest snowfall areas. Each simulation using NHM was calculated with 2kmx2km grid scales and 21 hours predictive time. A series of NHM simulation results in January 2003 at each grid were used as input data of SNOWPACK to simulate variation in snowpack characteristics. NHM simulations of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were in relatively good agreement with measurements. On the other hand, the quantity of precipitation simulated by NHM was much smaller than the measurements. Thus, NHM requires improvement of the precipitation simulation process. Snow depths from the coastal region to the mountainous region were simulated using SNOWPACK with the results of NHM excepting precipitation. Although the trends of snow depth variation were relatively reconstructed, the simulated amplitudes of variation in snow dept were smaller than the measurements at each site. The simulation results of snow type at NISIS agreed with the measurements relatively well, though unrealistic types “faceted particles” sometimes appeared in the model. In order to forecast spatial avalanche, improvements of each model, along with more detailed analyses, will be needed.

    Language of Article: English

    Presenters: Unknown

    Keywords: snow disaster, avalanche forecast, snow cover model, non-hydrostatic model, japan

    Page Number(s): 199-204

    Subjects: avalanche forecasting snow cover model snowpack

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