Item: Approach to spatial avalanche forecasting using a non-hydrostatic model and a snow cover model
Title: Approach to spatial avalanche forecasting using a non-hydrostatic model and a snow cover model
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2004 International Snow Science Workshop, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
Authors: Satoru Yamaguchi, Atsushi Sato, Katsushi Iwamoto, Sento Nakai Nagaoka Institute of Snow and Ice Studies, NIED, Nagaoka, Niigata, Japan. Michael Lehning Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos Dorf, Switzerland.
Abstract: To estimate the spatial variation in snowpack characteristics, two numerical models, a regional meteorological model (NHM) and a snow cover model (SNOWPACK), were connected on the Sea of Japan side, one of the heaviest snowfall areas. Each simulation using NHM was calculated with 2kmx2km grid scales and 21 hours predictive time. A series of NHM simulation results in January 2003 at each grid were used as input data of SNOWPACK to simulate variation in snowpack characteristics. NHM simulations of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were in relatively good agreement with measurements. On the other hand, the quantity of precipitation simulated by NHM was much smaller than the measurements. Thus, NHM requires improvement of the precipitation simulation process. Snow depths from the coastal region to the mountainous region were simulated using SNOWPACK with the results of NHM excepting precipitation. Although the trends of snow depth variation were relatively reconstructed, the simulated amplitudes of variation in snow dept were smaller than the measurements at each site. The simulation results of snow type at NISIS agreed with the measurements relatively well, though unrealistic types “faceted particles” sometimes appeared in the model. In order to forecast spatial avalanche, improvements of each model, along with more detailed analyses, will be needed.
Keywords: snow disaster, avalanche forecast, snow cover model, non-hydrostatic model, japan
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