Item: Toward Better Decision-Making: Recognizing the Effect of Selection Bias in the Analysis of Recreational Avalanche Data
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Title: Toward Better Decision-Making: Recognizing the Effect of Selection Bias in the Analysis of Recreational Avalanche Data
Proceedings: Proceedings of the 2006 International Snow Science Workshop, Telluride, Colorado
Authors:
- N.J. DiGiacomo [ Telluride, Colorado ]
Date: 2006
Abstract: A number of decision-related “urban myths†have taken hold in avalanche education as a result of statistical analyses of recreational avalanche accidents. We discuss the limitations that the self selecting nature of accident reporting place on the use of the conclusions of such analyses in avalanche decision-making and education. We suggest that one conclusion in particular – that avalanche victims’ familiarity with a slope seems to negate the benefits of training and experience – may be an artifact of a peculiar form of base rate neglect. We then propose an alternative approach to avalanche decision-making that is based on Bayesian statistical methods. This approach is particularly appropriate in situations where one wants to understand the effect of new evidence on the decision-making processes of people with varying levels of training and experience. It has the added benefit of being intuitively accessible to recreational users.
Object ID: issw-2006-244-253.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: avalanche education, decision-making, accident case studies, statistical analysis
Page Number(s): 244-253
Subjects: decision making recreational avalanche data avalanche education
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