Item: STATEWIDE AVALANCHE HAZARD MODELING ALONG ALASKA'S TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS
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Title: STATEWIDE AVALANCHE HAZARD MODELING ALONG ALASKA'S TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Gabriel J. Wolken [ Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Anchorage/Fairbanks, Anchorage, AK, USA ] [ International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2160 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK USA ]
- Elizabeth Fischer [ International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2160 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK USA ]
- Yves Bühler [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland ] [ Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre (CERC), Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland ]
- Marc Christen [ RAMMS AG, Davos, Switzerland ]
- Katreen Wikstrom Jones [ Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Anchorage/Fairbanks, Anchorage, AK, USA ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Alaska's road and rail network traverses some of the most active and least observed avalanche terrain in North America, creating persistent challenges for infrastructure resilience and public safety. Avalanche risk assessment for remote transportation corridors is often hindered by a lack of weather, snowpack, and historic avalanche data. This shortage of information makes it difficult to systematically evaluate safety along these routes. We present a statewide avalanche hazard assessment for road corridors in Alaska, utilizing an automated large-scale indication modelling approach. Originally developed in Switzerland, this methodology was implemented via RAMMS::Avalanche and specifically adapted for snow climates in Alaska. The workflow automates the identification of potential release areas (PRAs) to facilitate the simulation of regional-scale avalanche ensembles across Alaska's complex terrain. To address observational gaps, spatially distributed snow input parameters are derived from downscaled climate reanalysis, enabling consistent representation of release conditions across Alaska's diverse climatic regions. Simulations resolve runout extent, maximum velocity, maximum impact pressure, maximum flow height, and deposition for estimated frequent (~30-year) and rare (~300-year) return period scenarios. This large-scale modeling framework enables physically based hazard characteriza-tion in data-sparse environments where traditional observation-driven approaches are not feasible. Initial findings indicate significant regional variance in hazard levels, identifying localized clusters of high intensity, or 'hotspots', traversing the road corridors. Comparisons between return periods indicate non-linear increases in runout and impact pressure, with implications for infrastructure exposure and risk management. The resulting dataset provides a standardized, quantitative basis for prioritizing mitigation and supporting operational decision-making for the State of Alaska. More broadly, this work demonstrates a scalable approach for integrating climate-informed snow inputs with large-area avalanche dynamics modeling in high-latitude, observation-limited regions.
Object ID: ISSW2026_O2.4.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790099430
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Gabriel J. Wolken
Keywords: Avalanche modeling, Transportation corridors, Alaska, Hazard indication mapping, Climate reanalysis.
Page Number(s): 1587 - 1595
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