Item: UNDERSTANDING THE ACTIONABILITY OF FUTURE SNOW AVALANCHE HAZARD MAPS IN ALASKA
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Title: UNDERSTANDING THE ACTIONABILITY OF FUTURE SNOW AVALANCHE HAZARD MAPS IN ALASKA
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Kristin M. F. Timm [ International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA ]
- Patrick O. Ansah [ International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA ]
- Gabriel J. Wolken [ International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA ] [ Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Anchorage, AK, USA ]
- Katreen W. Jones [ Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Anchorage, AK, USA ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Climate change is altering snow and weather conditions in Alaska, creating new challenges for avalanche risk management. Researchers are developing future snow avalanche hazard maps to support planning under these changing conditions. This study examined how Alaska avalanche decision-makers use avalanche information and what makes future hazard maps actionable. We first conducted 18 semi-structured interviews with decision-makers working across avalanche forecasting, recreation, transportation, emergency management, utilities, municipalities, industry, homeowners, and other settings. Interview participants described using multiple information sources to understand avalanche conditions and make decisions. Future hazard maps were generally viewed as more useful for long-term planning than for day-to-day operations. The interview findings also informed a statewide survey completed by 198 avalanche decision-makers. In the survey, we examined actionability in terms of salience, credibility, and legitimacy and used latent profile analysis to identify segments of decision makers with unique perceptions of the anticipated actionability of hazard maps. The survey identified four actionability profiles among 188 respondents with complete data: Resistant (4.8%), Skeptical (16.0%), Receptive (66.5%), and Committed (12.8%). Respondents who perceived the maps as more salient, credible, and legitimate were generally more willing to use them. Profiles differed in how they viewed uncertainty. Respondents in the Committed profile, for example, were especially likely to view uncertainty as a normal part of avalanche science and to recognize multiple sources of uncertainty. Together, the findings show that future avalanche information must fit the decision context, connect with existing information practices, communicate uncertainty clearly, and address unique user needs to be more likely to be actionable.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P4.54.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790099400
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Kristin Timm
Keywords: Snow avalanches, actionable science, hazard maps, decision-making, uncertainty, risk communication
Page Number(s): 2373 - 2377
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