Item: BEYOND BETTER DECISIONS: ACCIDENT REDUCTION IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN
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Title: BEYOND BETTER DECISIONS: ACCIDENT REDUCTION IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Ian McCammon [ Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S.A ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: A paradox lies at the heart of many recreational avalanche accidents. Avalanche education is intended to help recreationists recognize dangerous conditions, yet trained people still die on the very slopes they were taught to avoid. Because a rational person would not make a decision likely to result in injury or death, these accidents are often explained as failures of decision making. When decision making is defined as the central problem, two solutions tend to dominate: bias awareness and decision aids. In this paper I review evidence showing the limits of bias awareness as a way to improve decision making and examine over a century of avalanche decision aids that, despite their value, have not definitively solved the problem. I then consider a broader perspective drawn from modern safety research that may offer additional opportunities for accident reduction. Building on concepts from Safety-II and related research, I develop a model showing how backcountry recreationists in avalanche terrain can drift toward three types of threats: structural, cognitive and emergent. I describe the mechanisms and tools associated with each, then introduce an adaptive awareness process derived from military operations and experiential learning that can address all three threat types. A companion paper describes how this framework is being applied to develop a skills ladder intended to help recreationists recognize, interrupt, and manage the conditions that precede decision failures before they culminate in an avalanche accident.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P4.33.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790099331
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Ian McCammon
Keywords: Decision making, human factors, Safety-II, adaptive awareness
Page Number(s): 1431 - 1438
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