Item: TOWARDS AN OPERATIONAL AVALANCHE FORECASTING TOOL USING RAMMS::EXTENDED
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Title: TOWARDS AN OPERATIONAL AVALANCHE FORECASTING TOOL USING RAMMS::EXTENDED
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Cam Campbell [ Alpine Solutions, Canada ]
- Eirik Sharp [ Alpine Solutions, Canada ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Recent advances in remote sensing enable real-time estimation of snow depth in avalanche starting zones. An emerging opportunity for avalanche forecasting is the incorporation of these data with avalanche simulations to estimate the potential avalanche runout distance for a given release volume. This could help predict whether it is possible for avalanches to reach a specific element at risk with the current conditions. Recent studies have explored the potential for RAMMS::Extended simulations, initialized with measured or modelled snowpack and weather data, to forecast avalanche runout distances. While these approaches are promising, they require further research into the appropriate model parametrization to accurately simulate non-extreme events before they can be broadly implemented as a predictive tool. Avalanche Path 51 is located on Highway 99 (i.e., Duffey Lake Road), approximately 85 km northeast of Whistler, Canada, in the Coast Mountains of southwestern British Columbia. It is the most active avalanche path along this corridor with an average of three events per year reaching the road. It has a highly channeled 1100 m long track that results in unique avalanche dynamics, with relatively low release volumes of often less than 5000 m³ running the full length of the path. Combined with a 46-year record of approximately 1500 avalanche observations, these physical characteristics make Path 51 a strong candidate for exploring RAMMS::Extended parameterization for non-extreme event simulation. This paper provides some promising initial results from fitting RAMMS::Extended simulations to observed late-season low-volume avalanches in Path 51. The results are intended to support the development of a forecasting tool that estimates runout distances based on measurable parameters such as release volume, snow temperature, and air temperature.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P3.54.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790099220
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Cam Campbell
Keywords: Release volume; runout distance; RAMMS::Extended; model parameters; avalanche forecasting
Page Number(s): 2271 - 2277
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