Item: FROM HAZARD ASSESSMENT TO ACTION IN SITE-SPECIFIC AVALANCHE OPERATIONS
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Title: FROM HAZARD ASSESSMENT TO ACTION IN SITE-SPECIFIC AVALANCHE OPERATIONS
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Aaron Careaga [ Snowbound Solutions, Boise, ID, USA ]
- Scott Havens [ Snowbound Solutions, Boise, ID, USA ]
- Don Sharaf [ Avalanche Risk Solutions, Alta, UT, USA ]
- Dave Richards [ Avalanche Risk Solutions, Alta, UT, USA ]
- Clark Corey [ Snowbound Solutions, Boise, ID, USA ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Frameworks such as the Conceptual Model of Avalanche Hazard (CMAH; Statham et al., 2018) provide a structured basis for characterizing avalanche hazard. However, the translation from hazard rating to operational action remains inconsistently formalized in site-specific settings (Jaedicke et al., 2024; Langeland and Steinkogler, 2023; Clark and Haegeli, 2018). This gap is especially relevant where a single hazard assessment may require different actions for separate assets depending on their vulnerability: a small avalanche may present low concern for occupied heavy machinery but be unacceptable where personnel are exposed on foot. Langeland et al. (2018) proposed the Operational Specific Avalanche Risk Matrix (OSARM) to bridge hazard characterization and mitigation planning, but published accounts of operational use remain limited. During the 2025–2026 season, practitioners at seven site-specific operations configured asset-specific hazard action matrices within a digital CMAH-based forecasting workflow within SnowObs. Each matrix mapped forecast likelihood and destructive size to operational action levels based on the vulnerability and exposure time of the elements at risk. This coupling allowed a single hazard assessment to produce different guidance for different assets under the same conditions. Forecasts were linked to field observations, prior assessments, and narrative reasoning, so the assessment and reasoning behind each forecast remain reviewable alongside the data. Across 140 forecast days, the primary value of the matrices was not in replacing forecaster judgment but in making the reasoning behind mitigation recommendations more explicit and reviewable. Practitioners described them as a structured check on assumptions going into the forecast rather than a new source of guidance. In practice, the matrices made asset-specific thresholds more explicit and gave forecasters a more reviewable and repeatable basis for briefings and operational communication. This is consistent with how pre-flight checklists function in aviation, where structured protocols formalize expert judgment rather than replace it. This is an early report from a limited number of site-specific projects. We make no claims about forecast accuracy or safety outcomes. We present an initial operational account of configurable hazard action matrices that extend the OSARM concept into daily operational use within a digital forecasting workflow.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P2.7.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790099082
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Aaron Careaga
Keywords: avalanche hazard assessment, CMAH, site-specific forecasting, hazard action matrices, operational decision support, OSARM
Page Number(s): 229 - 235
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