International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: DID PUBLISHING AVALANCHE DANGER SUB-LEVELS CHANGE THE BEHAVIOUR OF FORECASTERS AND FORECAST USERS?

• • Title: DID PUBLISHING AVALANCHE DANGER SUB-LEVELS CHANGE THE BEHAVIOUR OF FORECASTERS AND FORECAST USERS?

    Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026

    Authors:

    • Frank Techel  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
    • Leonie Schäfer  [ University of Zurich, Switzerland ]
    • Antoine Zaninetti  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
    • Sascha Brunner  [ Independent ]
    • Célia Lucas  [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland ]
    • Günter Schmudlach  [ Skitourenguru GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland ]
    • Ross Purves  [ University of Zurich, Switzerland ]

    Date: 2026-09-28

    Abstract: Avalanche danger levels compress complex avalanche conditions into five categories, inevitably hiding variation within a level. A fundamental question in risk communication is whether communicating within-level differences explicitly changes how people make decisions. The Swiss avalanche warning service provides a rare opportunity: in winter 2022/23 it began publishing sub-level modifiers (−, =, +) that forecasters had already assigned internally for six winters, while leaving the forecasting methodology unchanged. We evaluated behavioural responses across the full decision chain, from tour planning, through terrain choices in the field, to outcomes, and compared forecasting practice before and after publication. Forecasting practice changed little overall. The only notable shift occurred within danger level 2, where forecasters assigned 2+ more frequently, likely because the published modifier communicates "close to level 3 (considerable)" without issuing level 3. In contrast, we found little evidence that publication altered recreationists' decisions at any stage of the decision chain. Instead, users already appeared to respond to within-level differences before they were made explicit, suggesting that this information was already conveyed through bulletin wording and the observed snow conditions. Publishing sub-levels thus made within-level differences in avalanche danger explicit, without evidence of the behavioural changes that some critics had feared.

    Object ID: ISSW2026_P2.55.pdf

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790099046

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s): Frank Techel

    Keywords:

    Page Number(s): 2183 - 2191

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