Item: KEEPING PEOPLE SAFE IN OUR MOUNTAINS – TOWARD AN AUTOATES-BASED AVALANCHE MODELING SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN ALPS, AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND
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Title: KEEPING PEOPLE SAFE IN OUR MOUNTAINS – TOWARD AN AUTOATES-BASED AVALANCHE MODELING SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN ALPS, AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Philip Elder [ University of Otago and Mountain Research Centre, Dunedin, New Zealand ]
- Nicolas Cullen [ University of Otago and Mountain Research Centre, Dunedin, New Zealand ]
- Aubrey Miller [ University of Otago and Mountain Research Centre, Dunedin, New Zealand ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Snow avalanches present risks to people and infrastructure in mountain environments worldwide. In Aotearoa New Zealand, growing participation in alpine recreation and tourism, together with changing snow and weather conditions, is increasing the need for accessible and reliable tools that support avalanche risk management. The New Zealand Avalanche Advisory provides regional forecasts of current avalanche conditions, but there is currently no nationally implemented system for systematically classifying exposure to avalanche terrain. Such terrain information could complement existing avalanche forecasts and support more informed route selection and backcountry travel decisions. The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) provides an established framework for classifying and communicating exposure to avalanche terrain, while the recent development of AutoATES has enabled terrain classification to be automated over large areas. This study evaluates and adapts the AutoATES framework for application in Aotearoa New Zealand through the development of New Zealand mountain ATES (NZmATES). The modeling framework integrates terrain characteristics, potential avalanche release areas, simulated avalanche runout and vegetation effects to automatically classify terrain according to avalanche exposure. The approach is initially applied to the Craigieburn Range in the Southern Alps, where model outputs are being evaluated and refined using historical avalanche information and local alpine expertise. A graphical user interface has also been developed to facilitate parameter adjustment, model calibration and application across different mountain environments. This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of applying AutoATES in New Zealand and establishes a framework for systematic validation and expansion of NZmATES across the Southern Alps. Ultimately, NZmATES is intended to complement existing avalanche forecasting by providing detailed, terrain-based information that can be combined with current snowpack and weather conditions to support safer decision making in New Zealand's mountains.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P2.35.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098980
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Philip Elder
Keywords: Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES), Terrain, Avalanche Hazard, New Zealand
Page Number(s): 1343 - 1350
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