Item: A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR ASSESSING THE HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF STORM TOTALS FROM REMOTE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS
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Title: A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR ASSESSING THE HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF STORM TOTALS FROM REMOTE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Michelle Dalpes [ Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center, AK, USA ]
- John Sykes [ Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center, AK, USA ]
- Jason Konigsberg [ Colorado Avalanche Information Center, CO, USA ]
- Spencer Logan [ Colorado Avalanche Information Center, CO, USA ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Regional backcountry forecast centers face persistent challenges in understanding the historical significance of ongoing storms. This situational awareness is critical, as forecasters cannot effectively anticipate avalanche conditions during extreme weather events without recognizing when such events are occurring. Historically, there has been no efficient method to rapidly compare multi-day increases in snow water equivalent (SWE) from Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL stations to those observed during past storms. These data are widely used by avalanche forecasters across Alaska and the western United States to monitor storm progression. Following a historic avalanche cycle in March 2019 in Colorado, forecasters at the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) initiated development of a situational awareness tool designed to provide streamlined access to historical SWE data across broad spatial scales and enable comparison with active storm conditions. Forecasters at the Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center (CNFAC) subsequently expanded and automated this tool, transitioning it from a static spreadsheet into a more accessible and dynamic format. This tool is now publicly available for both avalanche professionals and general users via the CNFAC Storm Tracker application. This paper presents the structure and capabilities of the tool and evaluates its utility through a case study of a high-impact storm event. This case study demonstrates how the tool improves identification of anomalous snowfall patterns, supports real-time decision-making, and provides context for forecasting avalanche conditions during ongoing storms. In addition to operational use, the tool includes a retrospective "look-back" capability, allowing users to compare storms of interest with historical events, enhancing both forecasting practice and post-event analysis.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P2.23.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098941
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Michelle Dalpes
Keywords: Weather Forecasting and Climate, Avalanche Forecasting, Incidents and Case Studies, Instrumentation and Remote Sensing
Page Number(s): 855 - 860
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