International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: HOW BACKCOUNTRY USERS ENGAGE WITH AVALANCHE FORECASTS: EVIDENCE FROM AN ITEM RESPONSE MODELLING APPROACH

• • Title: HOW BACKCOUNTRY USERS ENGAGE WITH AVALANCHE FORECASTS: EVIDENCE FROM AN ITEM RESPONSE MODELLING APPROACH

    Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026

    Authors:

    • Jerred Jolin  [ Eastern Oregon University, La Grande, OR, USA ]
    • Kelly McNeil  [ Eastern Oregon University, La Grande, OR, USA ]

    Date: 2026-09-28

    Abstract: This study examined patterns of avalanche forecast information use among recreational-level avalanche course completers using data from the Use of Avalanche Center Forecasts (UACF) survey. Responses from 879 recreational-level avalanche course completers were analyzed with a uni-dimensional partial credit model (PCM) to develop a Use of Avalanche Forecast Information in Decision Making (UAFIDM) progress variable through an empirically driven, bottom-up approach. This variable represents four qualitatively distinct zones of use of avalanche forecast information among recreational users. Findings reveal four qualitatively distinct zones of forecast use, with most recreational users consistently engaging with summary-zone products while substantially fewer incorporate distributed, effort-intensive, and interpretive information sources. This pattern suggests that many recreational users may be making decisions based primarily on simplified summaries, without integrating the underlying data necessary for terrain selection and risk management. The results have direct implications for avalanche education and forecasting practice. Educational programs may need to more explicitly scaffold the transition from recognizing forecast elements to synthesizing information from multiple sources for decision-making. For forecasting operations, understanding which forecast elements are most frequently used by different user groups can help forecasters better align communication with user behavior. Identifying where engagement drops off may highlight opportunities to adjust how information is presented, emphasized, or integrated within the forecast to better support a range of users.

    Object ID: ISSW2026_P2.15.pdf

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098914

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s): Kelly McNeil

    Keywords: avalanche forecast, engagement, risk communication

    Page Number(s): 515 - 521

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