Item: HEURISTIC TRAPS IN AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MARKETING MANIPULATION: A ZETETIC APPROACH TO CRITICAL DECISION-MAKING
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Title: HEURISTIC TRAPS IN AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MARKETING MANIPULATION: A ZETETIC APPROACH TO CRITICAL DECISION-MAKING
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Cédric Larcher [ MND Safety, Sainte-Hélène-du-Lac, France ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Avalanche risk assessment is often compromised by heuristic traps (familiarity, consistency, acceptance, expert halo, social facilitation, scarcity), identified by McCammon as major factors in accidents. These cognitive biases share mechanisms with marketing and mental manipulation techniques (Kotler, Moretti, Edmüller, Wilhelm), such as social proof, anchoring, or authority, which exploit unconscious shortcuts in human judgment. To mitigate these risks, we propose a multidisciplinary framework combining: Zetetics (Henri Broch) as a systematic countermeasure to cognitive biases; Behavioral economics insights (Kahneman, Thaler, Sunstein) to understand and manage biases at a collective level; Nudging as a practical tool to structure prevention and decision-making. Zetetics—the art of systematic doubt—offers a countermeasure by promoting rigorous questioning of assumptions, verification of facts, and resistance to cognitive biases. Integrating zetetic principles into avalanche safety training could significantly reduce accidents caused by flawed decision-making. This novel approach, bridging cognitive neuroscience, marketing, and mountain safety, introduces actionable tools (e.g., checklists, critical thinking workshops) to foster a culture of skepticism and prudence. By addressing the human factors often overlooked in traditional safety protocols, this work proposes a framework to enhance risk evaluation and mitigate the influence of manipulation in high-stakes environments.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P1.50.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098833
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Cedric Larcher
Keywords: heuristic traps, avalanche risk, cognitive biases, marketing manipulation, zetetics, decision-making
Page Number(s): 1954 - 1960
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