Item: ADAPTING AVALANCHE HAZARD MAPPING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE – EMERGING PRACTICAL APPROACHES AND UNCERTAINTIES
-
-
Title: ADAPTING AVALANCHE HAZARD MAPPING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE – EMERGING PRACTICAL APPROACHES AND UNCERTAINTIES
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Simon Grüter [ geformer igp AG, Brig, Valais, Switzerland ]
- Flurina Schnider [ geformer igp AG, Brig, Valais, Switzerland ]
- Damian Steffen [ geformer igp AG, Brig, Valais, Switzerland ]
- Stefan Margreth [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Grisons, Switzerland ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Avalanche hazard mapping in Switzerland is based on long-established regulations and methods and provides a valuable basis for avalanche risk management in settlement and infrastructure areas. The designation of avalanche hazard zones relies, amongst others, upon data from the past, like weather records and historic avalanche events. The avalanche hazard maps are based on scenarios with a return period of up to 300 years and are used for long-term land-use and infrastructure planning, which is why it is crucial that the hazard map provides robust information on the expected avalanche risk in the next decades. In today's changing climate, the established methods may not be fully adequate to prepare for the avalanche risk of the future. The Swiss Federal Government therefore requires that climate change be systematically taken into account in hazard assessments. To support this requirement, the Swiss Network of Natural Hazards Experts (FAN) is developing a new methodology that combines historical avalanche activity with projections of future snow-climate conditions. To demonstrate the practical implications of this new methodology, we provide selected case studies of avalanche paths across different elevation ranges and discuss the anticipated changes in local avalanche risk. We provide an insight into how climate change considerations could be included into avalanche hazard assessment. Furthermore, we qualitatively discuss the associated uncertainties and identify open questions and challenges for hazard mapping in a changing climate.
Object ID: ISSW2026_P1.20.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098734
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Simon Grüter
Keywords: climate change, hazard mapping, case study, avalanche path, wet snow avalanche
Page Number(s): 592 - 599
-