Item: PROTECTING GUIDE JUDGMENT: OPERATIONAL RISK TOLERANCE DURING PERIODS OF UNCERTAINTY
-
-
Title: PROTECTING GUIDE JUDGMENT: OPERATIONAL RISK TOLERANCE DURING PERIODS OF UNCERTAINTY
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Erin Tierney [ Whistler Heli Skiing, Whistler, BC, Canada ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Expert judgment is fundamental to avalanche risk management, yet the experience and intuition that build that judgement is developed from repeated exposure to familiar patterns. When environmental conditions change faster than those patterns can be recalibrated, even highly experienced teams may face increased uncertainty and decision-making pressure. This paper examines how Whistler Heli Skiing (WHS), a coastal heli-ski operation in British Columbia, adapted its operational risk management approach in response to increasingly variable snowpack conditions, atypical avalanche behaviour, and changes to familiar glaciated terrain. During the 2023 / 2024 and 2024 / 2025 seasons, WHS experienced prolonged dry periods, intense storm cycles, persistent weak layers (PWL), and changing terrain characteristics that challenged established operational norms supported by decades of guide experience. Following a significant incident early in the 2024 / 2025 season, WHS shifted from communicating operational risk tolerance more implicitly towards developing more explicit operational systems. Key changes included clearer terrain-management protocols, revised decision-making procedures, and enhanced field data collection. A number of other actions were also added that supported operational efficiencies and communications, resulting in more support for workers and their tasks. These measures were not designed to replace guide expertise, but to enhance the structure day to day, as well as establish operational boundaries within which that expertise could be most effectively applied in periods of elevated hazard and uncertainty. Our experience suggests that managing uncertainty is not only a function of improving snowpack knowledge or decision-making. Operations can also reduce decision making burden by clearly defining acceptable risk, limiting unnecessary choices, and assuming responsibility for conservative operational decisions. This allows guides to focus their attention more directly on observations and changing conditions, prioritizing the nuanced judgments that remain essential in complex terrain. This case study explores how operational structure, systems, policies and risk communication can support expert judgment when familiar environmental patterns become less reliable and considers how defining operational risk tolerance supports decision-making during periods of uncertainty.
Object ID: ISSW2026_O8.6.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098677
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Erin Tierney
Keywords: Risk tolerance, Decision-making, Uncertainty, Organizational Change, Intuition.
Page Number(s): 1988 - 1995
-