Item: EXPERIENCES ON EFFECTIVE APPLICATIONS OF SITE-SPECIFIC AVALANCHE WARNING IN AVALANCHE RISK MANAGEMENT
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Title: EXPERIENCES ON EFFECTIVE APPLICATIONS OF SITE-SPECIFIC AVALANCHE WARNING IN AVALANCHE RISK MANAGEMENT
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Christian Jaedicke [ Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway ] [ University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway ]
- Holt Hancock [ Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway ]
- Piotr Kupiszewski [ Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway ] [ UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway ]
- Steinar Bakkehøi [ Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Avalanche warning as a mitigation measure was introduced in Norway when the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute's (NGI) avalanche research station at Fonnbu was established in 1974. Methods, tools and products of the NGI's warning service have undergone continuous development in the ensuing years, exploring new methods, incorporating international research, and, in later years, European Avalanche Warning Services standards and guidelines. Some of the main milestones included the introduction of automated weather stations into the forecasting workflow in the early 1980s, the transition to the European Avalanche Danger Scale in 1993, and the implementation of a fully web-based service in 2006. In 2013, a shift from both regional and site-specific to solely site-specific projects resulted in a transition from communicating a danger level to avalanche impact probability as the primary hazard information in the forecasts. These developments later formed the framework for the site-specific avalanche warning guidelines implemented by the European Avalanche Warning Services in 2022. For NGI's forecasting projects, naturally released avalanches that threaten the exposed assets have always been the focus. During these years, risk objects in the forecasting projects have included construction sites, energy infrastructure, military exercises, settlements and roads. Forecasting project durations ranged from days, weeks or several seasons, to projects that operated over ten years in the same area. For the last 20 years, NGI has operated a fully digital workflow, with standardized routines and standard products for the customers. Two avalanche forecasters are on duty every morning, issuing site-specific assessments by e-mail and SMS to predefined risk owner recipient lists. Today, our database contains over 16 000 forecasts issued for over 60 different warning areas. Accidents, mishaps, and close calls have occurred, given the long time horizons of our forecasting programs. Train derailments, impacts on open roads and partly destroyed houses that were not evacuated, are all part of the experience. Looking back at these events and other close calls raises the question of how such events can be avoided in the future. The discussion shows that in most cases, the lack of risk communication, misunderstanding one's role in risk management, and the lack of well-defined action plans are the main reasons for accidents, while accidents due to incorrect assessments of avalanche impact probability are limited.
Object ID: ISSW2026_O5.7.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098623
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Christian Jaedicke
Keywords: avalanche warning, risk management, risk communication
Page Number(s): 1933 - 1940
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