Item: WHICH BUILDINGS ARE AT RISK? MEET ALARM: AN AUTOMATED WORKFLOW LINKING AVALANCHE RUNOUT MODELLING TO BUILDING RISK ASSESSMENT FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN NORWAY
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Title: WHICH BUILDINGS ARE AT RISK? MEET ALARM: AN AUTOMATED WORKFLOW LINKING AVALANCHE RUNOUT MODELLING TO BUILDING RISK ASSESSMENT FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN NORWAY
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Leonie Kommerell [ The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
- Håvard Boutera Toft [ The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
- Gustav Pless [ The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
- Karin Bergbjørn [ The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: During periods of high/extreme avalanche hazard, decision makers need to identify which buildings may be exposed and where field assessments or evacuations should be prioritised. In many parts of Norway, this assessment is challenging because detailed avalanche hazard-zone maps or site-specific warning services are not available. The Avalanche Location Alert Risk Method (ALARM) is therefore being developed as a supplementary tool for periods of high or extreme avalanche danger. ALARM is an automated workflow that combines terrain analysis, potential release-area identification and avalanche runout modelling to assess the exposure of relevant buildings. It uses inputs from the regional avalanche forecast, such as elevation band, aspect and avalanche problem, to identify relevant release areas and models how far dry-snow avalanches could run in different scenarios. The output is a list of exposed buildings, together with maps of modelled avalanche runouts and estimated impact pressures. The aim is to enable experts to focus their time and resources on the most exposed buildings that may require field assessment or evacuation. ALARM provides a catalogue of five precomputed standard scenarios for each of Norway's avalanche forecast regions, excluding Svalbard. It also enables event-specific modelling for selected regions when the standard scenarios are insufficient. The workflow is intended as a decision-support tool and not as a replacement for expert judgement, local knowledge or detailed hazard-zone mapping. Validation against historical events and official hazard zones is ongoing; the present paper therefore demonstrates the method, national-scale implementation and computational feasibility rather than predictive accuracy. Approximately 30,000 simulations can be processed within four hours for a selected region, indicating that ALARM may eventually support time-critical avalanche emergency management once validation is complete.
Object ID: ISSW2026_O5.2.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098608
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Leonie Kommerell
Keywords: Avalanche exposure, Emergency management, Potential release areas, Runout modelling, Decision support, Building prioritization
Page Number(s): 742 - 748
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