Item: MORE ARS WHAT NOW? ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND THE CHANGING REALITY OF AVALANCHE FORECASTING
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Title: MORE ARS WHAT NOW? ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND THE CHANGING REALITY OF AVALANCHE FORECASTING
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Matt MacDonald [ BC Ministry of Transportation and Transit, Avalanche and Weather Program, Nelson, British Columbia, Canada ]
- Wren McElroy [ BC Ministry of Transportation and Transit, Avalanche and Weather Program, Nelson, British Columbia, Canada ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Historically, avalanche mitigation programs have been focused on snow avalanche forecasting and control. In this paper, we explore the shifting scope of avalanche programs to incorporate heavy rainfall events and the associated landslide, flooding, and infrastructure damage that can ensue, focusing on recent events affecting the inner South Coast of British Columbia. The North Cascades avalanche program comprises avalanche paths along the section of Trans-Canada Highway 1 running along the deep and steep-walled Fraser Canyon, BC Highway 5 known as the Coquihalla connecting Hope to Merritt with a maximum elevation of 1,244 m, and the portion of BC Highway 3 known as the Crowsnest connecting Hope to Princeton with a maximum elevation of 1,342 m. We review the December 2025 Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that struck the region, present select AR forecasting tools and discuss proactive transportation closure methods in an attempt to better plan and respond to strong AR and rain-on-snow events.
Object ID: ISSW2026_O4.1.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098584
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Matthew MacDonald
Keywords: Atmospheric River, rain-on-snow, landslide, debris flow
Page Number(s): 615 - 621
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