Item: A CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR SITE-SPECIFIC ROAD AVALANCHE WARNING IN NORWAY
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Title: A CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR SITE-SPECIFIC ROAD AVALANCHE WARNING IN NORWAY
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Markus Eckerstorfer [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Emil Solbakken [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Halgeir Dahle [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Tore Humstad [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Njål Farestveit [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Jens Øyen Tveit [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Eivind Schnell Juvik [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
- Dag Theodor Røsvik Andreassen [ The Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA), Norway ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Site-specific avalanche warning for roads is a risk-reducing measure that combines an assessment of avalanche likelihood with an impact-based assessment of consequence for the road — whether a given avalanche reaches the road, and what happens to traffic if it does. This consequence dimension is rarely addressed as an explicit, repeatable methodology; site-specific warning has typically relied on qualitative, case-by-case judgment instead. We present a structured, path-specific consequence assessment framework, separating a static preseason consequence matrix per avalanche path from a small set of daily dynamic inputs, combined in an operational likelihood and risk matrix. The framework introduces specific runout length, relative runout length, and consequence classes as methodological contributions to site-specific road avalanche warning. Applied to Rv. 13 Vikafjellet in 2025/26 and two additional corridors since 2024/25, the framework governed daily alert-level decisions alongside active avalanche control, yielding a residual risk comparable to established control programs internationally. We discuss current limitations — particularly the reliance on expert judgment for terrain, traffic scoring, and design avalanches — and outline how the framework could be made more systematic and automated.
Object ID: ISSW2026_O2.1.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098548
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Markus Eckerstorfer
Keywords: site-specific avalanche warning, consequence assessment, road avalanche risk, residual risk, impact-based forecasting
Page Number(s): 485 - 491
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