Item: SHRINE BOWL AVALANCHE CASE STUDY: LESSONS IN EXPECTATIONS
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Title: SHRINE BOWL AVALANCHE CASE STUDY: LESSONS IN EXPECTATIONS
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Aaron Parmet [ Summit County Rescue Group ] [ Colorado Mountain College ] [ Colorado Rapid Avalanche Deployment ]
- Drew Gibson [ Summit County Rescue Group ] [ Colorado Rapid Avalanche Deployment ] [ American Avalanche Institute ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: This case study of an outlier in avalanche rescue survival provides an opportunity to examine how expectation-based heuristics influence operational judgment and attitudes in avalanche rescue decision-making. In 2025, Summit County Rescue Group (SCRG) responded to an avalanche involving two snowmobilers in Shrine Bowl, Colorado. One rider was completely buried and remained under the snow for over one hour prior to extraction. Despite a burial duration markedly exceeding likely survival times, the patient survived, making this case an outlier within the SCRG response area. Summit County has the second-highest number of avalanche fatalities in Colorado, the state with the most fatalities in the United States. We present a reconstruction of the incident, the organized response, and key operational decision points. Analysis focuses on rescue outlook considerations and access constraints, with emphasis on how these factors drove tactical choices during storm conditions. Particular attention is given to moments when time-based assumptions conflicted with observed rescue outlooks. This case highlights a critical tension in avalanche rescue: while survival probability curves are foundational to training and triage, they can also introduce expectation bias that shapes perceptions of survivability and urgency. This phenomenon is observed even among experienced and highly trained rescuers. In long burial scenarios, these expectations may influence rescue decisions related to search persistence, risk tolerance, and allocation of resources in the face of difficult access and adverse weather conditions. To place this event in context, we reference other documented long burial survival outliers, examining these unexpected cases. This examination supports a shift in emphasis in rescuer education and training to better prepare for such scenarios and to influence rescuer attitude and decision-making. This case study contributes to ongoing discussions in avalanche rescue and decision-making by identifying how expectation bias can influence operational outcomes. We propose that rescue frameworks and training explicitly address this bias and incorporate flexible, observation-driven decision strategies. Lessons learned provide practical insights in support of this approach.
Object ID: ISSW2026_FS3.4.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098437
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Aaron Parmet
Keywords: Avalanche Rescue, Search and Rescue, Long Avalanche Burial, Cognitive Heuristics, Expectation Bias, Decision-Making
Page Number(s): 1515 - 1522
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