Item: AVALANCHE SCENARIO MAPS: FROM TERRAIN IDENTIFICATION TO DECISION SUPPORT TOOL
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Title: AVALANCHE SCENARIO MAPS: FROM TERRAIN IDENTIFICATION TO DECISION SUPPORT TOOL
Proceedings: Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Whistler, BC, Canada, 2026
Authors:
- Christoph Hesselbach [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Department for Natural Hazards, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Jakob Schwarz [ Avalanche Warning Service South Tyrol, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy ]
- Paula Spannring [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Department for Natural Hazards, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Anna Wirbel [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Department for Natural Hazards, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Andreas Huber [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Department for Natural Hazards, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Michael Winkler [ Avalanche Commission Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Christoph Mitterer [ Avalanche Warning Service Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Harald Riedl [ Avalanche Commission Tyrol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
- Jan-Thomas Fischer [ Austrian Research Centre for Forests, Department for Natural Hazards, Innsbruck, Austria ]
Date: 2026-09-28
Abstract: Site-specific avalanche warning requires spatially explicit estimates of where avalanches may release, how they may propagate, and what size they may reach. These assessments are often made under time pressure and from heterogeneous or limited information. Avalanche scenario maps can support local decision-making by translating these assessments into a consistent spatial representation of expected avalanche activity and its potential interaction with exposed elements. To address this need, we present a framework for translating an operational avalanche scenario into spatially explicit avalanche scenario maps by combining terrain potential with scenario-specific spatial and avalanche constraints. Terrain potential, derived through avalanche terrain identification, represents what the terrain can produce, while the avalanche scenario describes what is expected under prevailing conditions. A harmonized avalanche size interface links both components and enables spatial mapping of avalanche size. The interface builds on the established EAWS, CAA and AAA classifications. Continuous size relationships retain compatibility with these five-class operational schemes while allowing model inputs and outputs to be expressed on the same scale. Simulation results can therefore be translated back into spatially mapped dimension, runout and destructive size. The framework was developed and tested in two cross-border pilot regions and applied to selected scenarios across the EUREGIO Tyrol–South Tyrol–Trentino in the European Alps. Contrasting dry winter and wet spring scenarios demonstrate how the same terrain potential can result in spatially distinct avalanche scenario maps under different spatial and avalanche constraints. The resulting maps also allow scenarios to be compared in terms of affected area, characterized avalanche size and exposure of infrastructure. Developed iteratively with avalanche warning services and local avalanche commissions, the approach provides a basis for further integration into operational decision-support workflows.
Object ID: ISSW2026_FS2.3.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15788/1790098413
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Christoph Hesselbach
Keywords: Avalanche terrain identification, avalanche scenario maps, site-specific avalanche warning, avalanche size, avalanche simulation, decision support
Page Number(s): 1166 - 1173
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