Item: A PROBABILITY-BASED MODELLING APPROACH BEYOND A FEW SELECTED RETURN PERIODS FOR COMPREHENSIVE AND ROBUST HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT
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Title: A PROBABILITY-BASED MODELLING APPROACH BEYOND A FEW SELECTED RETURN PERIODS FOR COMPREHENSIVE AND ROBUST HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2024, Tromsø, Norway
Authors:
- Jan Kleinn [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF ]
- Yves Bühler [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF ]
- Julia Glaus [ WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF ]
- Dörte Aller [ Aller Risk Management ]
- Catherine Berger [ geo7 ]
- Michael Rinderer [ geo7 ]
- Nils Hählen [ Office for Forests and Natural Hazards, Canton of Berne ]
- Adrian Peter [ Office for Forests and Natural Hazards, Canton of Berne ]
- Corinne Singeisen [ Foundation for Prevention of the Public Insurance Companies for Real Estate (FPPIRE) ]
Date: 2024-09-23
Abstract: We present an innovative modelling approach, which allows to derive probability-based hazard information at any location in avalanche-prone areas. Such an event-based modelling approach allows for comprehensive risk assessments as it provides continuous intensity-frequency-curves at any location and allows to calculate continuous loss-frequency-curves for individual objects as well as for groups of objects. We simulate numerous possible avalanches, covering the entire range of release volumes, from small to very large. The probabilities of the different avalanche events are based on the exceedance probabilities of different snow accumulation heights, represented by the three-day snow accumulation, the key information currently used for the generation of hazard maps in Switzerland. The combined evaluation of avalanche intensities and probabilities in the area of impact allows to derive continuous intensity- frequency-curves at any given location. This approach contrasts with the current practice in Switzerland of assigning the return period of a single snow accumulation to all possible avalanche outcomes of this snow accumulation. In combination with exposed values and their vulnerability functions, this modelling approach allows to derive continuous loss-frequency-curves for comprehensive risk assessment and risk management. We present the simulation results of this novel approach from a case study in the Bernese Highland in the Swiss Alps. The case study results highlight the advantages of this new modelling approach in hazard and risk assessment. We show that climate change can be included in this modelling approach and that uncertainties can be quantified.
Object ID: ISSW2024_O7.7.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Jan Kleinn
Keywords: Hazard modelling, risk modelling, probabilistic modelling, avalanche hazard, avalanche risk, loss-frequency-curves
Page Number(s): 841 - 847
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