International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: IMPROVING LIKELIHOOD COMMUNICATION IN PUBLIC AVALANCHE FORECASTING: ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

• • Title: IMPROVING LIKELIHOOD COMMUNICATION IN PUBLIC AVALANCHE FORECASTING: ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon

    Authors:

    • Andrew Schauer  [ Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center, Girdwood, AK, USA ]
    • Simon Trautman  [ USDA Forest Service National Avalanche Center, USA ]
    • Aleph Johnston-Bloom  [ David Hamre and Associates, Anchorage, AK, USA ]
    • Eeva Latosuo  [ Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, CAN ]
    • Alex Marienthal  [ Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center, Bozeman, MT, USA ]
    • Ben VandenBos  [ Sawtooth Avalanche Center, Ketchum, ID, USA ]

    Date: 2023-10-08

    Abstract: Public avalanche forecasts in the United States and Canada use the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale (NAPADS) as a system for communicating avalanche danger to a wide range of backcountry users. A key component of NAPADS is the likelihood of natural and human-triggered avalanches. The scale uses five verbal expressions to communicate likelihood (i.e., 'unlikely', 'possible', 'likely', 'very likely', and 'certain'). Previous research has highlighted ambiguity with these terms, demonstrating the potential for practitioners to struggle with communicating likelihood within and between forecasting operations. It follows that the public would struggle with the same ambiguity. In this paper, we review the inherent challenges in the way people communicate probability and likelihood, explore how those challenges relate to public avalanche forecasting, and highlight potential avenues to improve the way likelihood is communicated in public avalanche forecasting. This review builds on recent work that has already identified some of these challenges, serving as a basis for modifying the way practitioners communicate likelihood to the public. We hope that our suggestions aid in resolving some of the ambiguity in avalanche forecasts, enabling practitioners to communicate risk more effectively, thereby providing the public with a more useful tool to navigate the backcountry safely.

    Object ID: ISSW2023_P2.50.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s): Andrew Schauer

    Keywords: likelihood, probability, risk communication

    Page Number(s): 944 - 949

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