Item: INTER-PARTY AVALANCHE INVOLVEMENTS MAY INCREASE QUADRATICALLY WITH PARTY DENSITY
-
-
Title: INTER-PARTY AVALANCHE INVOLVEMENTS MAY INCREASE QUADRATICALLY WITH PARTY DENSITY
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Charles A. Hagedorn [ Center for Experimental Nuclear Physics and Astrophysics, University of Washington, Seattle WA, USA ] [ Nanoradian LLC, Seattle WA, USA ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: We estimate, from first-principles, the rate of inter-party avalanche involvements. The model suggests that the likelihood of inter-party involvements is quadratic in the density of parties – twice as many parties quadruples the likelihood. The model predicts that when the product of the party-density and the area of a day's potential avalanches approaches one, inter-party avalanche involvements will become a substantial fraction of all avalanche involvements. As a corollary, the relative rate of inter-party involvements is expected to increase with avalanche size. We argue, with selected North American inter-party incidents from 2001-2019, that inter-party involvements are a timely concern. To spur conversation, we enumerate a variety of strategies that may mitigate inter-party hazard.
Object ID: ISSW2023_O8.04.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Charles A. Hagedorn
Keywords: inter-party avalanche catalog, backcountry crowding, first-principles model, party density, backcountry travel techniques
Page Number(s): 619 - 631
-