Item: DEVELOPING A UNIFIED APPROACH FOR APPLYING AVALANCHE PROBLEMS: A DECISION TREE- BASED SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENT HAZARD COMMUNICATION
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Title: DEVELOPING A UNIFIED APPROACH FOR APPLYING AVALANCHE PROBLEMS: A DECISION TREE- BASED SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENT HAZARD COMMUNICATION
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Matthias Walcher [ Avalanche Warning Service Salzburg, GeoSphere Austria, Salzburg, Austria ]
- Norbert Lanzanasto [ Avalanche Warning Service Tirol, Innsbruck, Austria ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: Avalanche problems are used in public avalanche forecasts to communicate complex information in a simplified manner, allowing users to understand potential avalanche hazards they might encounter in the winter backcountry and adjust their behavior accordingly. However, there is an existing lack of standards supporting avalanche forecasters in their decision-making process as to which situation leads to which defined avalanche problem. This consequently leads to inconsistencies in the application of avalanche problems. Inhomogeneous use of avalanche problems results in imprecise, confusing and sometimes misleading information towards backcountry users - and thus undermines the intention of the problems to support users in their efforts to manage avalanche risk effectively. To solve this lack of guidance, we have developed a decision tree that is capable of representing any avalanche situation and submits to the already existing definitions. It detaches the avalanche problems from the forecaster's assessment process and provides a clear way of determining and consequently communicating specific avalanche situations to the public. It therefore prevents inconsistencies that are solely due to the lack of clear guidelines on the part of avalanche forecasters, rather than the inherent uncertainties in evaluating and describing natural processes. Furthermore, it facilitates communication between forecasters, and improves the applicability of model results as a support tool in decision making processes in avalanche forecasting.
Object ID: ISSW2023_O5.03.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Matthias Walcher
Keywords: avalanche problems, avalanche forecasting, decision tree, communication, risk management, standardization
Page Number(s): 526 - 531
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