Item: TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY AVALANCHE FORECASTING WITH TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DATA AND METHODS
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Title: TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY AVALANCHE FORECASTING WITH TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DATA AND METHODS
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Jack R. Rueppel [ Citizen Scientist, Breckenridge, Colorado, USA ] [ Career Avalanche Forecaster/Technician 43 years, Colorado USA ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: Spatial Avalanche forecasting using Twenty-First Century publicly available avalanche data is presented. After examination of almost 1000 avalanche accidents where snow travelers were caught, buried or killed new concepts and methods are introduced these include: spatial forecasting, tertiary normal, slab waveguides. collapse manifold, crux mirroring, volatile and inert snow identification, sinter period, spatial based avalanche forecasting and cumulative recent micro-scale travel. Avalanches are separated into two distinct physical and mathematical phenomena; shedding and deadly triggered avalanches. Temporal avalanche forecasting favored by the avalanche community and industry is appropriate only for Shedding, Angle of Repose, Multi-day storm avalanches. Deadly triggered avalanches are more appropriately forecast and avoided by Spatial means.
Object ID: ISSW2023_P1.30.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Jack Rueppel
Keywords: A.E., tertiary normal, slab waveguide, crux mirroring, collapse, sinter
Page Number(s): 311 - 312
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