Item: EVALUATING UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER FORECASTS: COMPARING REPORTED AVALANCHE ACTIVITY WITH THE FORECASTED AVALANCHE PROBLEMS.
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Title: EVALUATING UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER FORECASTS: COMPARING REPORTED AVALANCHE ACTIVITY WITH THE FORECASTED AVALANCHE PROBLEMS.
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2023, Bend, Oregon
Authors:
- Nikki Champion [ Utah Avalanche Center, UT, USA ]
- Andy Paradis [ Utah Avalanche Center, UT, USA ]
- Brett Kobernik [ Utah Avalanche Center, UT, USA ]
Date: 2023-10-08
Abstract: One challenge avalanche centers often face is evaluating the accuracy of forecasts. The quantifiability of both an avalanche forecast and the corresponding avalanche problems it outlines exhibits occasional variability. This study examined avalanche forecasts from multiple seasons for the Salt Lake Area Mountains, Utah, to see 1) to what extent there is agreement between the avalanche problems in the forecast and the avalanches reported during the day and 2) if the avalanche problems observed match the aspect and elevation where those problems were forecasted. Data from the Salt Lake Area forecast were compared with reported avalanche observations. For the first study question above, we assessed agreement between the forecast and reported avalanches in two ways. First, a scatter plot was used to graphically represent the data to compare the specific avalanche problem on specific dates. Second, an agreement was further quantified using Cohen Kappa, which measures the proportion of agreement over and above chance agreement and is often used in studies to assess interrater reliability. The second study question is a subset of the question above where we pulled the same forecast data range for the avalanche problems, elevation, and aspect, and all reported avalanche observations. We created a subset of the data based on the Salt Lake area mountain elevation bands. We then used a scatter plot to graphically represent the data to compare the aspect and elevation of the reported avalanches versus the date.
Object ID: ISSW2023_P1.05.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Nikki Champion
Keywords: accuracy, forecasting, avalanche problems, communication
Page Number(s): 165 - 172
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