International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: Avalanche Problem Solver (APS) - a decision support system for forecasters

• • Title: Avalanche Problem Solver (APS) - a decision support system for forecasters

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria

    Authors:

    • Karsten Müller  [ Norwegian Water Resources And Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
    • Rune V. Engeset  [ Norwegian Water Resources And Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
    • Markus Landrø  [ Norwegian Water Resources And Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway ]
    • Tore Humstad  [ Norwegian Public Roads Administration, Oslo, Norway ]
    • Espen B. Granan  [ The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway ]
    • HÃ¥vard Thorset  [ The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway ]

    Date: 2018-10-07

    Abstract: The Norwegian Avalanche Warning Service is developing a data analysis and decision support system called Avalanche Problem Solver (APS). The goal is to provide major inputs to the avalanche bulletin automatically, in order to support the avalanche forecasters in their daily work routine. The system collects and filters relevant weather and snow information from various sources. The most relevant sources are the seNorge/xgeo snow models, the numerical weather prediction models AROME-MetCoOp and ECMWF, the observation database regobs.no, and the observational weather database eKlima. The system conducts a statistical analysis of the data within a forecasting region and standard forecast period (normally 24h). APS can weight input data in two different ways: a) by relevance with regard to avalanche terrain, e.g. specific elevation zones or areas with a high density of relevant slope angles or b) weighting of different contributing factors by their relevance to avalanche danger, e.g. precipitation amount is weighted more than humidity. An automatic and customized weather forecast text for the mountainous regions in Norway was implemented and run operationally during the winter 2017/2018. In the future, we would like to develop APS such that it can suggest avalanche problem(s) (distribution/ranking), highlight important weather and snowpack conditions, and suggest a danger level for each region, each day.

    Object ID: ISSW2018_O12.7.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s):

    Keywords: Avalanche forecasting, decision making, data analysis

    Page Number(s): 1131-1135

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