Item: Operational model-based forecast of wet snow avalanche activity: Experiences from two seasons
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Title: Operational model-based forecast of wet snow avalanche activity: Experiences from two seasons
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings 2018, Innsbruck, Austria
Authors:
- Andreas Gobiet [ Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria ]
- Lisa Jöbstl [ Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria ]
- Veronika Hatvan [ Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria ]
- Hannes Rieder [ Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria ]
Date: 2018-10-07
Abstract: The avalanche warning service of Styria (Austria) developed a model-based prototype warning system for the onset of wet snow avalanche activity and operates this system since winter 2016/2017. The system is based on the SNOWPACK model to describe the liquid water content in the snow cover, combined with an ensemble of high resolution numerical weather prediction models. This ensemble-approach takes into account the uncertainty in weather forecasts. To achieve a realistic initial state of the snow cover, the model system is constrained by observations as far as possible. After initialization, the system provides forecasts for up to three days. As indicator for instability, the liquid water content index by Mitterer et al. (2013) is used. This study describes recent advances in the implementation of the warning system and experiences from two years of operation. The results demonstrate that this model system can be a valuable tool in operational avalanche warning but still needs to be completed with additional information. Familiarity with the local conditions (i.e. the experience of the avalanche forecaster) and local snow height measurements are important sources of supplementary information.
Object ID: ISSW2018_P08.10.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: avalanche forecast, wet snow avalanches, LWCindex, SNOWPACK.
Page Number(s): 759-763
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