Item: The Reliability of Norwegian Rescue Missions Following Road Related Avalanche Incidents, Modelled with Bayesian Belief Network
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Title: The Reliability of Norwegian Rescue Missions Following Road Related Avalanche Incidents, Modelled with Bayesian Belief Network
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2016 Proceedings, Breckenridge, CO, USA
Authors:
- Albert Lunde [ The University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway ]
- Ove Njå [ The University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway ]
Date: 2016-10-02
Abstract: In Norway, snow avalanches hitting roads are a considerable safety challenge for the rescue services. Previous studies have given rise to wondering about the rescuers' levels of exposure to avalanche risk during these missions. A quick and lifesaving response must balance the safety of the rescuers, and their ability to meet both demands constitutes the reliability of the rescue service. All 58 Norwegian rescue service registered road related avalanche incidents in the period of 2010-2014 were included in a study, and 45 out of these 58 incidents were analyzed by the use of organizational risk indicators. Identified risk influencing factors (RIF) and other relevant variables were then included in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in order to model both the associated risk and the overall reliability of the rescue service. The analysis of rescue operations demonstrated high numbers of operational risk assessment deviations related to the alert phase and to the continuous avalanche risk management performed by the rescuers. Qualitative and quantitative modelling showed that rescue management in the alert phase, professional judgement of avalanche conditions, and continuous risk assessment are the most important RIFs to control when aiming at an effective and safe rescue operation.
Object ID: ISSW16_P3.11.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Avalanche rescue, risk management, reliability, risk indicators, Bayesian Belief Networks
Page Number(s): 983-989
Subjects: Avalanche rescue avalanche risk management safe road site
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