International Snow Science Workshop Proceedings - Montana State University Library

Item: A Tool, Not a Test: Use of Explosives for Avalanche Hazard Assessment

• • Title: A Tool, Not a Test: Use of Explosives for Avalanche Hazard Assessment

    Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2014 Proceedings, Banff, Canada

    Authors:

    • Dick Penniman  [ Snowbridge Associates, Consultant,Truckee, CA, USA ]
    • Michael Leatherbee  [ Pontifica Universidad Católica de Chile, Assistant Professor of Entrepreneurship, Strategy, and Innovation, Santiago de Chile ]

    Date: 2014-09-29

    Abstract: By most widely accepted definitions a "test" is a procedure for critical evaluation; a measure to check the reliability of something, especially before putting it into widespread use. Tests are used—explicitly or implicitly—in conjunction with a hypothesis. That is, a predetermined belief about a specific phenomenon. In traditional practice the use of explosives has long been viewed as a test to validate the hypothesis of snowpack instability. However, when results are negative—i.e., the explosives fail to trigger avalanches—the actual stability of the snowpack remains undetermined. This situation may underlie a type I error, that is, the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis. The so-called "post control avalanche" phenomenon proves that the instability of the snowpack remains unknown when explosives fail to trigger avalanches. Therefore, explosives use in avalanche mitigation procedures does not satisfy a robust hypothesis test and may be considered only a "tool" to attempt to trigger avalanches. While positive results from the use of explosives may be effective at reducing the potential risk to life and property, we argue that when a significant avalanche hazard is forecast and the subsequent use of explosives yields negative results, this observation does not constitute a confirmation that the snowpack is stable and safe. Allowing public access to the avalanche terrain that is by definition "untested," cannot be considered a valid forecasting or mitigation procedure. Given the known potential for significant residual risk to the public of "post control avalanches", the use of explosives as a "snowpack stability test" is called into question.

    Object ID: ISSW14_paper_P2.33.pdf

    Language of Article: English

    Presenter(s):

    Keywords: Post control avalanche, stability, instability, null hypothesis, type I error, test, tool, cognitivedissonance.

    Page Number(s): 820-826

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