Item: An Expert Opinion Survey for the Development of a Decision Support Tool for Persistent Deep Slab Avalanche Forecasting
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Title: An Expert Opinion Survey for the Development of a Decision Support Tool for Persistent Deep Slab Avalanche Forecasting
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2014 Proceedings, Banff, Canada
Authors:
- Michael Conlan [ Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada ]
- Bruce Jamieson [ Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada ]
Date: 2014-09-29
Abstract: Persistent deep slab avalanches can be dangerous to humans and infrastructure because of their high destructive potential. The lengthy age of the failed persistent weak layer and typically large depth to the failure layer make them difficult for forecasters to predict. This research aims at creating a decision support tool to aid avalanche forecasters in determining the likelihood of natural persistent deep slab avalanches. To create the tool, an expert opinion survey was completed by avalanche professionals in western Canada. The questions were based on snowpack, weather, and avalanche observation information that will help to create the tool. Some results were found to vary regionally. For example, professionals in the Columbia Mountains expected on average 35 cm of snowfall over a 24-hour period to favour deep slab release whereas smaller averages were found for other mountain ranges. The importance of preceding deep slab avalanches also varied.
Object ID: ISSW14_paper_P1.05.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: deep slab avalanche, forecasting, survey, decision support
Page Number(s): 455-458
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