Item: Identifying Trends in Forecaster Behavior Over 35 Years at the Northwest Avalanche Center
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Title: Identifying Trends in Forecaster Behavior Over 35 Years at the Northwest Avalanche Center
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop 2014 Proceedings, Banff, Canada
Authors:
- Chris Morin [ Northwest Avalanche Center, Seattle, WA, USA ]
Date: 2014-09-29
Abstract: The Northwest Avalanche Center has forecasted weather and avalanche hazard for the PNW for over 35 years. They have produced almost 100,000 point forecasts, each of which is targeted towards an area adjacent to a weather station. This provides the unique opportunity to match each of these forecasts with the actual conditions observed. In this paper the biases by forecaster, changes over time, and bias introduced by corresponding weather patterns are identified. Auto-Correction of future forecasts using the statistical analysis of past biases is also discussed. This is the first time such a complete analysis has been able to take place of an avalanche center from birth to present day, and we hope the learnings uncovered will be an example of the power of data within avalanche forecasting in general.
Object ID: ISSW14_paper_O4.02.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s):
Keywords: Avalanche Forecasting, Forecast Accuracy, Weather Data, Weather Forecasts
Page Number(s): 85
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