Item: Single and Mass Avalanching Similarity of Avalanching in Space
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Title: Single and Mass Avalanching Similarity of Avalanching in Space
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Grenoble – Chamonix Mont-Blanc - October 07-11, 2013
Authors:
- Pavel Chernous [ Center for Avalanche Safety, "Apatit" JSC, Kirovsk, Russia ]
Date: 2013-10-07
Abstract: Sometimes it is possible to observe only single avalanche release in a big area with numerous avalanche paths, but sometimes avalanches occur in many avalanche paths in the same area almost simultaneously. Why is that? It is clear that for multiple avalanche releases conditions in which they occur should be very similar. Probabilities of simultaneous avalanching in different avalanche paths and conditional probabilities of avalanche release P(i/j) in an avalanche path i if the avalanche occurred in an avalanche path j can be an indexes of these conditions similarity. Data of long-term avalanche observations in the Khibiny Mountains were used to assess the mentioned probabilities. Statistical significances of the obtained assessments were tested and analogues avalanche paths were identified. Generally speaking the most of the conditional probabilities are very low. Maximal probabilities were 0.5 – 0.6 for closely spaced avalanche starting zones. Probabilities of mass avalanche release in the area decrease sharply with the number of avalanche paths where avalanches occur. Attempts to determine the analogue avalanche paths (starting zones) on a base of their morphometric characteristics were not successful. Nevertheless the obtained probabilities P(i/j) and P(i/jn) – conditional probabilities of avalanche release in the avalanche path i if avalanche release in the avalanche path j did not occur, can be useful for avalanche release probability assessment in the avalanche path i if information about avalanche probability in the avalanche path j has been obtained. For example, it can be done on a base of a mechanical stability model and statistical simulation.
Object ID: ISSW13_paper_P1-15.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: avalanches, mass avalanching, similarity of avalanching in space
Page Number(s): 285-291
Subjects: avalanche paths avalanche release avalanche starting zones
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