Item: Validating a Relationship Between Avalanche Runout Distance and Frequency
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Title: Validating a Relationship Between Avalanche Runout Distance and Frequency
Proceedings: International Snow Science Workshop Grenoble – Chamonix Mont-Blanc - October 07-11, 2013
Authors:
- Alexandra Sinickas [ Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Alberta ]
- Bruce Jamieson [ Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Alberta ]
Date: 2013-10-07
Abstract: Statistical runout models can provide good estimates of extreme avalanche runout, but do not estimate more frequent runout distances such as ten or thirty-year events. These distances are critical in many hazard mapping and analysis projects. This paper presents the first validation results of a model that expresses return period as a function of runout distance. We compared modelled runout distances with observed runout distances to 129 trim lines from 34 paths in the Canadian Columbia and Rocky Mountains. We made two key findings. First, modelled runout distances were consistently downslope of observed runout distances, implying that either the model or the validation method is biased. Second, the model performed better for paths within the Rocky Mountains (median residual 3 to 11 % of path length) than for paths within the Columbia Mountains (median residual 17 to 35 % of path length).
Object ID: ISSW13_paper_O2-23.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): Unknown
Keywords: runout Ratio, frequency, magnitude, poisson, avalanche runout, trim lines
Page Number(s): 632-638
Subjects: avalanche runout runout distance avalanche hazard mapping
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