Item: The New Challenge is No More to Improve Prediction, But to Better Manage the Unexpected
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Title: The New Challenge is No More to Improve Prediction, But to Better Manage the Unexpected
Proceedings: Proceedings, 2012 International Snow Science Workshop, Anchorage, Alaska
Authors:
- Alain Duclos [ data-avalanche.org, France ]
Date: 2012
Abstract: While researchers are devoting their efforts for decades to improve avalanche forecasting, it still appears that the victims are almost always surprised: they either did not expect at all an avalanche at the time, or they never imagined they were of such magnitude. However, it is sometimes the best professionals who are involved, the ones who should have avoided the accident completely, or limit its severity, if they had been aware of the danger. To minimize the effect of surprise, current methods of risk reduction are not fully satisfactory. On the contrary, assuming that the avalanche is predictable, they reinforce the user sometimes in dangerous beliefs. Therefore we explored the idea of "bounded vigilance model" proposed by Ian McCammon in 2009. Thus, on the basis of simple, measurable and debatable parameters, the objective is to determine which mode of vigilance is required: relax mode, concerned mode, alert mode or... hazardous mode. The goal is no longer to predict the avalanche (which does not generally occur), but to be better prepared for the unexpected. From here, there are clearly opportunities for danger avoidance, risk reduction or reconsidering the entire project. I have adopted this practice for helping decision making during cross-country skiing, track-setting for ski mountaineering races ... or for risk management on the access roads to the biggest ski resorts in the Alps. This is also taught in the training of French guides and ski instructors.
Object ID: issw-2012-473-478.pdf
Language of Article: English
Presenter(s): unknown
Keywords: avalanche forecasting, avalanche risk reduction, hazard
Page Number(s): 473-478
Subjects: avalanche risk reduction snow pack stability
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